Jonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging markets equity strategist, Morgan Stanley, gives Samie Modak his assessment of the Indian economy after 3 years of Modi Sarkar.
India Inc's investment project announcement falls to Rs 11.3 trillion. In the coming months, the pace of investments would depend on how soon consumption demand picks up and private sector investment ramps up investment in infrastructure.
India will see a three-fold jump in GDP.
About 56 million Indians may have plunged into extreme poverty in 2020 as a result of the pandemic, increasing the global tally by 71 million and making it the worst year for poverty reduction since World War II, according to fresh estimates by the World Bank. "The global goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 is likely to be missed: By then, about 600 million people will remain in abject poverty. A major course correction is needed," Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, tweeted. The World Bank in its latest "Poverty and Shared Prosperity" made fresh estimates of poverty using a new extreme poverty line based on the purchasing power parity (PPP) of $2.15, the earlier one being at $1.9.
Consumer spending and the sentiment that guides it are the key to the growth of any market economy.
Key macroeconomic indicators suggest softening industrial growth.
There has been a distinct trend change in the micro-indicators like rising auto sales and consumer confidence index in the last 20 quarters, Chandrasekaran stated.
Costlier vegetables slowly pushed retail inflation, which had remained well within the Reserve Bank's comfortable level of 4 per cent during most part of 2019, peaked to more than three-year high of 5.54 per cent in November.
'As the Indian economy continues to expand over the next three years, mid- and small-caps should do well as they have higher exposure to the domestic economy than large-caps.'
GST collections jumped 15 per cent to nearly Rs 1.68 lakh crore in November, the finance ministry said on Friday. Goods and Services Tax (GST) mop-up was over Rs 1.45 lakh crore in November 2022.
'At this stage, you should distribute money and food.' 'Like you queue up to vote, let people queue up to collect this.' 'This will arrest the decline in demand which will have a multiplier effect on the demand side for the economy as a whole.' 'The government should earmark about 2% of the GDP for this.' 'And this should be the first step to revive the economy.'
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
The economy segment of India's car market is unlikely to revive soon term as inflation and prices prompt buyers to defer purchases. The share of entry-level cars in the passenger vehicle market dropped to the lowest in seven years at the end of the Financial Year 2021-22 (FY22). A recovery in the segment will be largely driven by the overall economic growth, improvement in income levels, and easing of semiconductor shortage, say carmakers and analysts.
Taking a strong view of Google pulling out some apps from its Play Store, the government on Saturday said delisting of Indian apps cannot be permitted and that the tech company and the startups concerned have been called for a meeting next week. In an interview to PTI, IT and Telecom Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said the startup ecosystem is key to the Indian economy and their fate cannot be left to any big tech to decide. The minister's comments assume significance as Google on Friday began removing some apps, including popular matrimony apps, from its Play Store in India over a dispute on service fee payments, even as apps and well-known startup founders cried foul.
Debit card payments remained sluggish due to the surge in digital transactions after the pandemic, and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has emerged as the most popular mode of money transfer, particularly for small value transactions, according to RBI data. In July 2020, the total debit card spends stood at Rs 2.81 trillion, as compared to Rs 3.15 trillion in July 2023, reflecting a growth of 11.96 per cent. UPI spends have seen a whopping growth of 428 per cent, zooming from Rs 2.90 trillion to Rs 15.33 trillion during the same period, the data revealed.
The biggest bounce is in the realty sector, where the industry index jumped 80%. There's been a turnaround also in automobiles and ancillaries (up 45%). The pharma and health care indices have a welcome return of roughly 35%.
Packaged tea consumption in India has been under pressure due to inflation across the consumption basket coupled with higher tea prices. This is forcing tea drinkers to downtrade, especially in rural areas. Milk prices have also gone up and this has impacted tea consumption along with delayed winters in the north, companies have said. NIQ (formerly known as NielsenIQ) data shows that the packaged tea category grew around 4 per cent in value and volume terms in 2022 compared to 2021.
Bihar has fertile grounds for caste to emerge as an electoral issue.
Narendra Modi is India's most successful prime minister and the greatest global leader of current generation, billionaire Mukesh Ambani said on Wednesday as he flaunted his group Reliance Industries' Gujarati heritage and its over USD 150 billion (Rs 12 lakh crore) investment in last 10 years.
'...which is possible through flexicap and multicap funds.' 'The latter has a better balance between large, mid and smallcap stocks.'
'Election funding needs a little more transparency.'
Change will have to begin with Mr Modi, who by all accounts has shown little active interest in macro-economic issues, preferring instead to focus on the effective implementation of projects and programmes, points out T N Ninan.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
Global funds, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, are now beginning to pay more attention to India with the market now offering 30 companies with a market capitalisation over $25 billion.
India, the world's third-largest energy consumer, will see its energy needs doubling by the end of this decade as it witnesses an unprecedented explosion of economic growth, the nation's richest man Mukesh Ambani said on Saturday. Speaking at the convocation of Pandit Deendayal Energy University (PDEU), Ambani, who heads the nation's most valuable company Reliance Industries Ltd, said the Indian economy will become a $40 trillion economy by 2047 from the current $3.5 trillion. "And to fuel this growth, the country will need enormous amounts of energy - clean, green energy that won't choke mother nature for the sake of human progress," he said.
Economy showing mixed signals, outlook challenging: FinMin
'Given all the linkages, the monthly registration data for new vehicles, may well be the single most accurate indicator of India's economic health,' points out Devangshu Datta.
Technically speaking, US equities have seen net losses since January. India is strongly influenced by US trends.
The boom in organised retail will set the tone for major economic overhaul. The ripple effect will be improved supply chains, volume output, integration into global commerce, and higher tax collection, notes T N Ninan.
The combination of sanctions, and low fuel prices is really hurting the Putin regime.
According to a communication by the ministry to the heads of PSBs, it will be a bottom-up consultative process from the branch level onwards which will involve discussions at the branch or regional level, state level and national level.
A change in the desire to buy consumer durables is perhaps the most important indicator of an economy changing direction, explains Mahesh Vyas.
With rest of the world showing no signs of growth and headwinds ahead for US growth, chances are that we might continue to see central banks pumping money into their economies
From middle-class it is middle-income India, marketers are chasing for volumes. The 166 million households in this category is the new focus.
Inflation has seen some moderation in the recent past, falling from double-digit figures in 2013 to 7.8 per cent year-on-year in August.
'Being one of the 150 million upper middle class consumers, I can vouch that the average expenses on white goods or clothing are minimal. Indians are not consumerist by nature,' says Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
India will not tailor its policies to suit US EV maker Tesla, and its laws and tariff rules will be formulated to attract all-electric vehicle manufacturers from across the world to set up a base in the world's fastest-growing economy, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said. Tesla has been seeking an initial tariff concession that would allow it to offset 70 per cent customs duty for cars priced less than $40,000, and 100 per cent for cars of higher value.
'India is an equity market with a breadth and depth of companies to invest in.'
